Let's make one thing clear; our first Forex blog will not be fundamental! I look at these charts and remember why I'm a technician. Our currency blog of August 24, encourages us to look for confirmation in other charts before we take a position, or to add/subtract conviction to our investment hypothesis.
So first, be reminded of the tit-for-tat nature of the dollar/euro but start to add the Swedish Krona to that evaluation. Interestingly, SellerySignals has us out of the Krona but long the euro. Something may be in transition and I'd stay awake on this trade. The Krona's momentum has turned up and this may bring it back in line with an up arrow on the euro and the down arrow on the dollar.
Turning our attention to the Yen/Real charts, all I'll say is that they look pretty similar back a couple of years but neither makes sense fundamentally. This is why we say that only 'price tells no lies.' Who could have thought Japanese rates would be on the rise? You could say that Brazil's economy was worth investment? But the price tells no lies and I'd like to have bought both of them 6 to 9 months ago. Oh, did I forget to mention that SS had us long the Yen in December and the Real in January? Ya gotta love math. By the way, the Aussie dollar is a close second to these two. A little volatile but worth watching in the Yen/Real mix.
Interestingly, the British pound and the Canadian dollar exhibit more similarities than one might have thought; but probably no divergences worth trading. Thats not to say one can't make money on either or both, just not based on this intermarket analysis. SellerySignals currently has the Canadian Dollar as UP 100% and the Pound as UP 50%.
The price action of the Swiss Franc and Singapore Dollar have more in common than one might think and are therefore worth monitoring. I'll let our fundamentalists tell us why but both charts are flashing a 'buy'...shy of the massive volatility in both that might give me pause.
Finally, regarding the Renminbi and the Rupee, well, the charts just don't look very accommodating. China is obviously regulated and the Rupee doesn't seem to offer many tradable trends. Although the size of these economies makes their currencies a 'must watch,' I'm not as sure they are a 'must trade.'
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